Vedanta group chairman, Anil Agarwal, 69, is well known for his business journey from a scrap dealer from Bihar to a London-based globe-girdling metal and oil and gas conglomerate with revenues of $19 billion. Now his abilities to keep his group from over-leveraging itself will be put to the test. Over the years, Agarwal, now based in London, set up the conglomerate via acquiring iron ore producer Sesa Goa, Cairn's oil producing assets in India, and Electrosteel Steel.
'...over the long-term can be done only by investing in equities.' 'And during weak macros, one needs t1o allocate more than drawing it down, because they offer the best entry point.'
'Like all long-term bull markets, the Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry.'
On Thursday, Adani Enterprises announced that it will not go ahead with acquiring Macquarie group's two road companies at an enterprise valuation of Rs 3,100 crore.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
Global investment management firm Bernstein has pegged the enterprise valuation of Reliance Industries (RIL)'s 85 per cent stake in Reliance Retail at $111 billion, while valuing the Mukesh Ambani-led company's 66.5 per cent stake in telecom and digital platform arm Reliance Jio at $88 billion. Reliance Industries had earlier planned to list both its subsidiaries to unlock value for its shareholders but hadn't fixed any timeline. The report said that Reliance Retail had raised $6 billion by diluting a 10.1 per cent stake, while Jio Platforms raised $20 billion from investors by selling 33 per cent in 2020.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
Ahmedabad-based Nirma group and leading private equity firms have joined the race to acquire BSE-listed Glenmark Life Sciences. The acquisition by chemicals-to-cement major Nirma, if successful, would be a major boost for the health-care segment of the group, on the lines of its successful entry into the cement sector following its purchase of Lafarge India's assets for about Rs 9,400 crore in July 2016. It later followed up by buying Emami cement assets for Rs 5,500 crore in February 2020.
The markets may be entering a consolidation phase and are expected to trade sideways for now after a good run in the last few weeks, suggest analysts. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can book profits at the current levels and enter the market again on a decline from a medium-to-long term perspective. Thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 5 per cent to nearly 62,000 levels.
India Inc could be embarking upon a new phase of capital expenditure (capex) cycle, observed analysts, and suggest its revival would lead to a rerating of industrial stocks. Assisted by a property upcycle, analysts at Jefferies said several government initiatives were likely to drive capex. Indicators, they said, include a private project announcement at Rs 25 trillion for 2022-23 (up 150 per cent from pre-pandemic levels) and credit growth at about 16 per cent, which is closer to pre-pandemic highs.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
'As the Indian economy continues to expand over the next three years, mid- and small-caps should do well as they have higher exposure to the domestic economy than large-caps.'
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
The mid-and small-cap segments at the bourses have outperformed their larger peers thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). While the S&P BSE Small-cap index has surged around 5.7 per cent in FY24, the S&P BSE Midcap index has gained 4 per cent during this period. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 2.2 per cent.
'The impact of CEO transition is fairly even for stocks, with about half (53 per cent) of the events not producing any change in the relative performance of the stock.'
Adani Group is expected to report a 20 per cent rise in its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) at Rs 61,200 crore for the year that ended in March 2023 (2022-23, or FY23), according to a note submitted by the group to lenders recently. The group had earned Ebitda of Rs 57,299 crore in the preceding financial year that ended in March 2022 (2021-22). The group's gross debt was Rs 2.27 trillion as of March 31, 2023, and has projected to not take on additional debt until it lowers its existing one.
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
Reliance Industries, construction major L&T and IRB Infrastructure are some of the top companies that have used an infrastructure investment trust structure to reduce part of their debt and generate returns for their investors. Earlier this month, IRB Infrastructure InvIT was listed on the National Stock Exchange, giving its investors an option to exit by selling their units. The listing came within months of the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) guidelines for conversion of private unlisted InvITs into listed ones were issued.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
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